Match context

The upcoming match between Mariehamn and SJK is scheduled for 15.08.2026 16:00 in Veikkausliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Mariehamn are in position 12 with 5 points after 18 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDLL. SJK are in position 10 with 18 points after 18 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWLLL.

Recent results

Mariehamn recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 9 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. SJK recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLLWDDLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Mariehamn recorded 3 wins, there were 0 draws, and SJK recorded 7 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 12.70; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or SJK (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.26%, 22.83% and 58.91%. The model momentum difference is 40.65 points in favour of SJK. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.45%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Mariehamn 0 / SJK 0 supports Mariehamn by an average 2.40 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Mariehamn at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.83 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.83 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 16.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 19 completed matches (73.7% coverage). The discipline profile for SJK away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.71 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.86 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Mariehamn and SJK ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mariehamn at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.83 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.83 total cards per match. In this game, Mariehamn received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.83 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for SJK away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.71 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.86 total cards per match. In this game, SJK received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.86 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Mariehamn at 0. The stored market movement was 2.4 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.