Match context

The upcoming match between HJK Helsinki and FF Jaro is scheduled for 16.08.2026 13:00 in Veikkausliiga. The listed venue is Bolt Arena, Helsinki. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
HJK Helsinki are in position 3 with 31 points after 18 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. FF Jaro are in position 11 with 15 points after 18 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDW.

Recent results

HJK Helsinki recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLWWWWLW. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. FF Jaro recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDWLDLLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, HJK Helsinki recorded 8 wins, there were 1 draws, and FF Jaro recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.43; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 99%; over 9.5 corners — 89%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as HJK Helsinki to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.25%, 18.10% and 10.65%. The model momentum difference is 60.61 points in favour of HJK Helsinki. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.51%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for HJK Helsinki at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.86 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 28.6%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 15 of 19 completed matches (78.9% coverage). The discipline profile for FF Jaro away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.43 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 28.6%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 19 completed matches (73.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between HJK Helsinki and FF Jaro ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for HJK Helsinki at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.86 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 2.14 total cards per match. In this game, HJK Helsinki received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.14 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 28.6% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 28.6%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FF Jaro away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.43 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. In this game, FF Jaro received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.57 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.