Match context

The upcoming match between KuPS and Mariehamn is scheduled for 23.08.2026 12:00 in Veikkausliiga. The listed venue is Väre Areena, Kuopio. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
KuPS are in position 1 with 43 points after 18 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWWW. Mariehamn are in position 12 with 8 points after 18 matches. The season record is 0 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLDL.

Recent results

KuPS recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLDDWLWLW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Mariehamn recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLDLLLLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, KuPS recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Mariehamn recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as KuPS to win with 74% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.73%, 16.03% and 10.24%. The model momentum difference is 63.49 points in favour of KuPS. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.84%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 21, score 85/100, 84.62% group success rate across 1021 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for KuPS at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.40 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 40.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 20 completed matches (65.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Mariehamn away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.38 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 87.5%, 62.5%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 20 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between KuPS and Mariehamn ended 2-4. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for KuPS at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.4 total cards per match. In this game, KuPS received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Mariehamn away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.38 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.38 total cards per match. In this game, Mariehamn received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.38 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 21. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.