Match context

The upcoming match between Stabaek and Moss is scheduled for 05.09.2026 18:00 in 1. Division. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Stabaek are in position 3 with 42 points after 16 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 16 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. Moss are in position 14 with 19 points after 16 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLDL.

Recent results

Stabaek recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWWWWWL. The averages are 3 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Moss recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLDLLLLL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Stabaek recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and Moss recorded 2 wins. The average total was 4.83 goals per match. Both teams scored in 83.3% of those matches, while 83.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stabaek to win with 69% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.17%, 17.98% and 12.85%. The model momentum difference is 56.32 points in favour of Stabaek. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.30 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.08%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stabaek +0.25 / Moss -0.25 supports Stabaek by an average 2.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 9 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 85/100, 85.35% group success rate across 471 observations). Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stabaek at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.57 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 42.9%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 20 completed matches (80.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Moss away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 20 completed matches (90.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stabaek and Moss ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.83 goals, while this match produced 5. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stabaek at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.57 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.57 total cards per match. In this game, Stabaek received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.57 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Moss away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Moss received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Stabaek at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Even HT goals. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.