Match context

The upcoming match between Notodden and Lysekloster is scheduled for 06.09.2026 12:00 in 2. Division - Group 1. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Notodden are in position 4 with 27 points after 14 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 11 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWL. Lysekloster are in position 12 with 14 points after 14 matches. The season record is 3 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDW.

Recent results

Notodden recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLWWWWLWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Lysekloster recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLWDWLL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notodden recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Lysekloster recorded 1 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Notodden to win with 70% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 69.54%, 17.62% and 12.84%. The model momentum difference is 56.70 points in favour of Notodden. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.32 with Pinnacle. The stored estimated EV is -8.20%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Notodden 0 / Lysekloster 0 supports Notodden by an average 1.47 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 20, score 87/100, 87.05% group success rate across 193 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Notodden at home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 17 completed matches (52.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Lysekloster away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 7 of 17 completed matches (41.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Notodden and Lysekloster ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Notodden at home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Notodden received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Lysekloster away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, Lysekloster received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Notodden at 0. The stored market movement was 1.47 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 20. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.