Match context

The upcoming match between Hønefoss and Follo is scheduled for 30.08.2026 12:00 in 2. Division - Group 2. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Hønefoss are in position 4 with 32 points after 14 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. Follo are in position 13 with 9 points after 13 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL.

Recent results

Hønefoss recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWWWWWLDL. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals. Follo recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWLLLDLLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hønefoss recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Follo recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.80 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Hønefoss to win with 75% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 74.56%, 14.91% and 10.53%. The model momentum difference is 64.04 points in favour of Hønefoss. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.20 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.53%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 34, score 80/100, 79.52% group success rate across 293 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Hønefoss at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 16 completed matches (56.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Follo away from home is based on 3 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 10 of 16 completed matches (62.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Hønefoss and Follo ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.8 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Hønefoss at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, Hønefoss received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Follo away from home was based on 3 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Follo received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 34. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.