Match context

The upcoming match between Ostersunds FK and IK brage is scheduled for 10.09.2026 17:00 in Superettan. The listed venue is Jämtkraft Arena, Östersund. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Ostersunds FK are in position 4 with 38 points after 17 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 27 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDDW. IK brage are in position 14 with 21 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLDL.

Recent results

Ostersunds FK recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWDWWDWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. IK brage recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDLWDLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Ostersunds FK recorded 4 wins, there were 1 draws, and IK brage recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 44.4% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Ostersunds FK or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.71%, 24.16% and 18.12%. The model momentum difference is 39.59 points in favour of Ostersunds FK. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.38%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Ostersunds FK -0.25 / IK brage +0.25 supports Ostersunds FK by an average 2.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 21 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 79/100, 78.71% bucket win rate across 512 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Ostersunds FK at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 50.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 22 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for IK brage away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 40.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 22 completed matches (90.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Ostersunds FK and IK brage ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.67 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ostersunds FK at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.6 total cards per match. In this game, Ostersunds FK received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for IK brage away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, IK brage received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Ostersunds FK at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.07 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.