Match context

The upcoming match between San Martin S.J. and Atletico DE Rafaela is scheduled for 01.08.2026 18:30 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Martin S.J. are in position 11 with 26 points after 20 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWL. Atletico DE Rafaela are in position 7 with 30 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 18 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLD.

Recent results

San Martin S.J. recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWLLWWDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atletico DE Rafaela recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLDDWLWL. The averages are 0.40 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 10% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Martin S.J. recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Atletico DE Rafaela recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Martin S.J. or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 54.16%, 30.22% and 15.62%. The model momentum difference is 38.54 points in favour of San Martin S.J.. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.49%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Martin S.J. -0.25 / Atletico DE Rafaela +0.25 supports San Martin S.J. by an average 2.54 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between San Martin S.J. and Atletico DE Rafaela ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported San Martin S.J. at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.54 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.