Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo Moron and Acassuso is scheduled for 09.08.2026 18:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo Moron are in position 2 with 38 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLLW. Acassuso are in position 16 with 20 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLL.

Recent results

Deportivo Moron recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDLLWWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Acassuso recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLDLLWDWL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Moron recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Acassuso recorded 5 wins. The average total was 1.90 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo Moron to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.84%, 28.21% and 10.95%. The model momentum difference is 49.89 points in favour of Deportivo Moron. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.53 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Deportivo Moron +0.25 / Acassuso -0.25 supports Acassuso by an average 1.03 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo Moron and Acassuso ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.9 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Acassuso at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.03 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.