Match context

The upcoming match between Quilmes and Almagro is scheduled for 09.08.2026 20:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Quilmes are in position 14 with 24 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLW. Almagro are in position 10 with 28 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWW.

Recent results

Quilmes recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLWLWDWD. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Almagro recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLWWWDWL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Quilmes recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Almagro recorded 5 wins. The average total was 1.88 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Quilmes or draw (1X) with 87% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.84%, 27.63% and 12.53%. The model momentum difference is 47.31 points in favour of Quilmes. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Quilmes 0 / Almagro 0 supports Quilmes by an average 4.08 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 16 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

What happened in the match

The match between Quilmes and Almagro ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.88 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Quilmes at 0. The stored market movement was 4.08 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a push. The result is neutral and is counted as neither confirmed nor unconfirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 1 were not confirmed, while 1 settled neutrally. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.