Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo Moron and Almagro is scheduled for 15.08.2026 18:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo Moron are in position 2 with 41 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWDL. Almagro are in position 11 with 30 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDWL.

Recent results

Deportivo Moron recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDLLWWWW. The averages are 1.90 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Almagro recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWLWWWDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Moron recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Almagro recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo Moron or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.36%, 28.96% and 15.68%. The model momentum difference is 39.67 points in favour of Deportivo Moron. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.57%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportivo Moron at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 3.10 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 3.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0%, 40.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 22 completed matches (90.9% coverage). The discipline profile for Almagro away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.45 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 81.8%, 36.4%, 9.1% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 23 of 24 completed matches (95.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo Moron and Almagro ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 total goals, while this match produced 2. That is an exact match with the historical scoring profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Moron at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 3.1 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 3.2 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Moron received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Almagro away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.45 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.55 total cards per match. In this game, Almagro received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.45 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 36.4% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 9.1%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.