Match context

The upcoming match between Quilmes and San Telmo is scheduled for 15.08.2026 22:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Quilmes are in position 12 with 29 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWDLL. San Telmo are in position 15 with 23 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLL.

Recent results

Quilmes recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDLLWLWDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. San Telmo recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLWDDLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 2 head-to-head matches, Quilmes recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and San Telmo recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Quilmes or draw (1X) with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.95%, 27.61% and 14.44%. The model momentum difference is 43.51 points in favour of Quilmes. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Quilmes at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.78 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 44.4%, 11.1%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 20 of 22 completed matches (90.9% coverage). The discipline profile for San Telmo away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 3.40 yellow cards, 0.30 red cards and 3.70 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 80.0%, 60.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 30.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 23 completed matches (91.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Quilmes and San Telmo ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 5 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.