Match context

The upcoming match between San Martin Tucuman and Deportivo Madryn is scheduled for 16.08.2026 21:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Martin Tucuman are in position 9 with 31 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDW. Deportivo Madryn are in position 6 with 36 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDDL.

Recent results

San Martin Tucuman recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLDWWDLDL. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Deportivo Madryn recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDDLWDDDW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 4 head-to-head matches, San Martin Tucuman recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and Deportivo Madryn recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 75% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Martin Tucuman or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 50.79%, 31.32% and 17.90%. The model momentum difference is 32.89 points in favour of San Martin Tucuman. The input data quality score is 99/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -3.94%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Martin Tucuman at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 3.44 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 55.6%, 44.4% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 21 of 22 completed matches (95.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Deportivo Madryn away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.78 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 11.1%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 17 of 20 completed matches (85.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Martin Tucuman and Deportivo Madryn ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 4 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.25 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 4 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Martin Tucuman at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 3.44 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, San Martin Tucuman received 3 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Madryn away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.78 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 1.89 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Madryn received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.11 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 11.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Summary

Of 6 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.