Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo Moron and San Miguel is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:30 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo Moron are in position 2 with 45 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWLW. San Miguel are in position 11 with 29 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 11 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLD.

Recent results

Deportivo Moron recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWWLWDLLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. San Miguel recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLDLDWD. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Moron recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and San Miguel recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 33.3% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo Moron or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.89%, 31.13% and 16.98%. The model momentum difference is 34.91 points in favour of Deportivo Moron. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.36%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportivo Moron at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.09 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 81.8%, 54.5%, 36.4% and 18.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 22 of 25 completed matches (88.0% coverage). The discipline profile for San Miguel away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 25.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 23 completed matches (56.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo Moron and San Miguel ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Moron at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.09 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Moron received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.09 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 54.5% of matches, 5+ in 18.2%, and a red card in 9.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Miguel away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 2.25 total cards per match. In this game, San Miguel received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.75 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 25% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 25%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.