Match context

The upcoming match between Patronato and Almagro is scheduled for 30.08.2026 18:30 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Patronato are in position 17 with 25 points after 22 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 11 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDDL. Almagro are in position 13 with 31 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLDLD.

Recent results

Patronato recorded 1 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLDDLDLDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Almagro recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDLDWLWWW. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patronato recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Almagro recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Patronato or draw (1X) with 86% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 57.02%, 28.51% and 14.47%. The model momentum difference is 42.54 points in favour of Patronato. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.07%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Patronato +0.5 / Almagro -0.5 supports Patronato by an average 1.05 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Patronato at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 3.20 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 3.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 70.0%, 40.0% and 30.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 22 completed matches (95.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Almagro away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.58 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 41.7%, 16.7% and 8.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 8.3%. Season card data is available for 25 of 26 completed matches (96.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Patronato and Almagro ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.6 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Patronato at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 3.2 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 3.3 total cards per match. In this game, Patronato received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 70% of matches, 5+ in 30%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Almagro away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.58 yellow cards, 0.08 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Almagro received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 41.7% of matches, 5+ in 8.3%, and a red card in 8.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Patronato at +0.5. The stored market movement was 1.05 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.