Match context

The upcoming match between San Martin Tucuman and Club Atlético Güemes is scheduled for 30.08.2026 21:30 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Martin Tucuman are in position 9 with 35 points after 23 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDLL. Club Atlético Güemes are in position 18 with 22 points after 22 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDLL.

Recent results

San Martin Tucuman recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDLLDWWDL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Club Atlético Güemes recorded 0 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDDLLLLLLL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Martin Tucuman recorded 3 wins, there were 4 draws, and Club Atlético Güemes recorded 1 wins. The average total was 2.25 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 37.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Martin Tucuman or draw (1X) with 87% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.31%, 27.39% and 13.30%. The model momentum difference is 46.01 points in favour of San Martin Tucuman. The input data quality score is 98/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.63%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Martin Tucuman +0.25 / Club Atlético Güemes -0.25 supports Club Atlético Güemes by an average 1.66 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 18 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Martin Tucuman at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 3.40 yellow cards, 0.30 red cards and 3.70 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 60.0%, 50.0% and 20.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 30.0%. Season card data is available for 23 of 24 completed matches (95.8% coverage). The discipline profile for Club Atlético Güemes away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.56 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 20 of 22 completed matches (90.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Martin Tucuman and Club Atlético Güemes ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.25 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Martin Tucuman at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 3.4 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards and 3.7 total cards per match. In this game, San Martin Tucuman received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.7 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 60% of matches, 5+ in 20%, and a red card in 30%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Club Atlético Güemes away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.56 yellow cards, 0.44 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, Club Atlético Güemes received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Club Atlético Güemes at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.66 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a half loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.