Match context

The upcoming match between Colon Santa Fe and Deportivo Moron is scheduled for 05.09.2026 20:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Colon Santa Fe are in position 3 with 45 points after 23 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWD. Deportivo Moron are in position 2 with 49 points after 22 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWW.

Recent results

Colon Santa Fe recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWDLLWWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Deportivo Moron recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWWLWDLL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Colon Santa Fe recorded 2 wins, there were 2 draws, and Deportivo Moron recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 16.7% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Colon Santa Fe or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 50.12%, 30.57% and 19.31%. The model momentum difference is 30.81 points in favour of Colon Santa Fe. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Colon Santa Fe 0 / Deportivo Moron 0 supports Colon Santa Fe by an average 2.76 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Colon Santa Fe at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 19 of 22 completed matches (86.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Deportivo Moron away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.91 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 3.18 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 81.8%, 63.6%, 36.4% and 18.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 27.3%. Season card data is available for 23 of 26 completed matches (88.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Colon Santa Fe and Deportivo Moron ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 83.3%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Colon Santa Fe at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Colon Santa Fe received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Moron away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.91 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards and 3.18 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Moron received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.18 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 63.6% of matches, 5+ in 18.2%, and a red card in 27.3%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Colon Santa Fe at 0. The stored market movement was 2.76 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.