Match context

The upcoming match between Deportivo Madryn and Ciudad de Bolívar is scheduled for 06.09.2026 19:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Deportivo Madryn are in position 5 with 43 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDW. Ciudad de Bolívar are in position 7 with 38 points after 23 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLLL.

Recent results

Deportivo Madryn recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDWWDDLW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ciudad de Bolívar recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLLLWDLWL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn recorded 1 wins, there were 0 draws, and Ciudad de Bolívar recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1 goals per match. Both teams scored in 0% of those matches, while 0% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 20%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Deportivo Madryn or draw (1X) with 84% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.72%, 28.29% and 15.99%. The model momentum difference is 39.73 points in favour of Deportivo Madryn. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Deportivo Madryn at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.56 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 20 of 24 completed matches (83.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Ciudad de Bolívar away from home is based on 13 matches. The team averages 3.23 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 61.5%, 38.5% and 15.4% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 15.4%. Season card data is available for 26 of 26 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Deportivo Madryn and Ciudad de Bolívar ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 1 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Deportivo Madryn at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.56 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, Deportivo Madryn received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Ciudad de Bolívar away from home was based on 13 matches, with averages of 3.23 yellow cards, 0.15 red cards and 3.38 total cards per match. In this game, Ciudad de Bolívar received 5 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 6 in total. That was 2.62 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 61.5% of matches, 5+ in 15.4%, and a red card in 15.4%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.