Match context

The upcoming match between Colegiales and Nueva Chicago is scheduled for 12.09.2026 18:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Colegiales are in position 10 with 37 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWDL. Nueva Chicago are in position 15 with 32 points after 22 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 20 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL.

Recent results

Colegiales recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDLDWWLL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nueva Chicago recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLLLWLDLW. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Colegiales recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Nueva Chicago recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Under 2.5 goals — 100%; Under 3.5 goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%; Both teams to score — 0%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Colegiales or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 51.89%, 31.13% and 16.98%. The model momentum difference is 34.91 points in favour of Colegiales. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.36%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Colegiales at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.30 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 40.0%, 30.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 26 completed matches (84.6% coverage). The discipline profile for Nueva Chicago away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 3.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 81.8%, 63.6%, 36.4% and 27.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 24 of 25 completed matches (96.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Colegiales and Nueva Chicago ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.6 goals, while this match produced 1. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Colegiales at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.3 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Colegiales received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.6 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nueva Chicago away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 3.18 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. In this game, Nueva Chicago received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 0.73 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 63.6% of matches, 5+ in 27.3%, and a red card in 9.1%.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.