Match context

The upcoming match between Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela is scheduled for 13.09.2026 19:00 in Primera Nacional. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Gimnasia Jujuy are in position 3 with 49 points after 28 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 42 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDDWL. Atletico DE Rafaela are in position 10 with 39 points after 28 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDDW.

Recent results

Gimnasia Jujuy recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDDWLLLWDD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Atletico DE Rafaela recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDDWDWLLL. The averages are 0.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gimnasia Jujuy recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Atletico DE Rafaela recorded 6 wins. The average total was 1.67 goals per match. Both teams scored in 11.1% of those matches, while 22.2% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Gimnasia Jujuy or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 52.02%, 29.26% and 18.73%. The model momentum difference is 33.29 points in favour of Gimnasia Jujuy. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Gimnasia Jujuy at home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 1.42 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.42 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 8.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 24 of 28 completed matches (85.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Atletico DE Rafaela away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 3.09 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 72.7%, 45.5% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 22 of 27 completed matches (81.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Gimnasia Jujuy and Atletico DE Rafaela ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.67 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 88.9%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 77.8%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gimnasia Jujuy at home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 1.42 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.42 total cards per match. In this game, Gimnasia Jujuy received 4 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 5 in total. That was 3.58 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 8.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Atletico DE Rafaela away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 3.09 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 3.27 total cards per match. In this game, Atletico DE Rafaela received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.27 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 72.7% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 18.2%.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.