Match context

The upcoming match between Excursionistas and Ituzaingó is scheduled for 07.09.2026 23:00 in Primera B Metropolitana. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Excursionistas are in position 3 with 62 points after 28 matches. The season record is 15 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWL. Ituzaingó are in position 22 with 14 points after 28 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 9 draws and 18 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 45 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLDDL.

Recent results

Excursionistas recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWLWDDWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Ituzaingó recorded 0 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLDDLDDLLD. The averages are 0.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Excursionistas recorded 4 wins, there were 4 draws, and Ituzaingó recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 30%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Excursionistas to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.29%, 19.80% and 8.91%. The model momentum difference is 62.38 points in favour of Excursionistas. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.89%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Excursionistas at home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 1.88 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 12.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 22 of 27 completed matches (81.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Ituzaingó away from home is based on 15 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.60 red cards and 3.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 66.7%, 46.7% and 26.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 53.3%. Season card data is available for 26 of 29 completed matches (89.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Excursionistas and Ituzaingó ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.