Match context

The upcoming match between Kooteepee and KäPa is scheduled for 15.08.2026 17:00 in Ykkösliiga. The listed venue is Arto Tolsa Areena, Kotka. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kooteepee are in position 1 with 39 points after 17 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 30 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDLW. KäPa are in position 8 with 16 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD.

Recent results

Kooteepee recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWDLWDWWLW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. KäPa recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLDLWLLW. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 7 head-to-head matches, Kooteepee recorded 6 wins, there were 0 draws, and KäPa recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.71 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kooteepee to win with 73% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 73.28%, 15.27% and 11.45%. The model momentum difference is 61.83 points in favour of Kooteepee. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.40%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 90/100, 90.48% bucket win rate across 21 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 26, score 86/100, 85.89% group success rate across 404 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kooteepee at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.44 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for KäPa away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.63 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 62.5%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 15 of 18 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kooteepee and KäPa ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 7 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.71 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 7 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kooteepee at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.44 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. In this game, Kooteepee received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.44 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for KäPa away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.63 total cards per match. In this game, KäPa received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.63 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 62.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 26. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.