Match context

The upcoming match between KäPa and JIPPO is scheduled for 20.08.2026 15:00 in Ykkösliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
KäPa are in position 8 with 16 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 29 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLD. JIPPO are in position 4 with 31 points after 18 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

KäPa recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLDLWLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. JIPPO recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDWWDDWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, KäPa recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and JIPPO recorded 7 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or JIPPO (X2) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.93%, 24.23% and 57.84%. The model momentum difference is 39.91 points in favour of JIPPO. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.14 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.44%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.25, score 75/100, 75.48% bucket win rate across 367 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for KäPa at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.57 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage). The discipline profile for JIPPO away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 1.78 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 55.6%, 22.2%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between KäPa and JIPPO ended 1-3. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for KäPa at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.57 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. In this game, KäPa received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.71 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 14.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for JIPPO away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 1.78 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.78 total cards per match. In this game, JIPPO received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.78 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.25. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.