Match context

The upcoming match between Haka and MP is scheduled for 06.09.2026 15:30 in Ykkösliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Haka are in position 3 with 40 points after 18 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. MP are in position 7 with 21 points after 18 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLWD.

Recent results

Haka recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWWDWLL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. MP recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLWDLDWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Haka recorded 5 wins, there were 0 draws, and MP recorded 1 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 33.3% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Haka to win with 68% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 68.03%, 19.05% and 12.93%. The model momentum difference is 55.10 points in favour of Haka. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.52%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Haka +0.25 / MP -0.25 supports MP by an average 1.37 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Corners Over Under — Over 8.5 (odds 1.24, score 89/100, 89.29% bucket win rate across 28 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Haka at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 44.4%, 33.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 16 of 21 completed matches (76.2% coverage). The discipline profile for MP away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.88 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.88 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 21 completed matches (76.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Haka and MP ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Haka at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.56 total cards per match. In this game, Haka received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.56 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for MP away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.88 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.88 total cards per match. In this game, MP received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.12 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported MP at -0.25. The stored market movement was 1.37 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.