Match context

The upcoming match between Stockholm Internazionale and Arlanda is scheduled for 16.08.2026 11:00 in Ettan - Norra. The listed venue is Kristinebergs IP, Stockholm. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Stockholm Internazionale are in position 3 with 30 points after 15 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 14 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW. Arlanda are in position 4 with 30 points after 15 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 15 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWWW.

Recent results

Stockholm Internazionale recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWWWDWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Arlanda recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWWWWWWLD. The averages are 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stockholm Internazionale recorded 2 wins, there were 3 draws, and Arlanda recorded 0 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stockholm Internazionale to win with 65% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.96%, 20.70% and 14.34%. The model momentum difference is 50.61 points in favour of Stockholm Internazionale. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.38 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.36%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Stockholm Internazionale -0.25 / Arlanda +0.25 supports Stockholm Internazionale by an average 9.34 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 77/100, 77.30% bucket win rate across 370 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stockholm Internazionale at home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.60 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 40.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 9 of 16 completed matches (56.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Arlanda away from home is based on 4 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 25.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 16 completed matches (68.8% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stockholm Internazionale and Arlanda ended 4-1. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stockholm Internazionale at home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.6 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.6 total cards per match. In this game, Stockholm Internazionale received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Arlanda away from home was based on 4 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0.25 red cards and 2.75 total cards per match. In this game, Arlanda received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.75 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 25%, and a red card in 25%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Stockholm Internazionale at -0.25. The stored market movement was 9.34 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.