Match context

The upcoming match between FBK Karlstad and Piteå is scheduled for 30.08.2026 11:00 in Ettan - Norra. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FBK Karlstad are in position 7 with 28 points after 15 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 23 scored and 22 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDLL. Piteå are in position 15 with 12 points after 15 matches. The season record is 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 16 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDDLL.

Recent results

FBK Karlstad recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWDLLWLWL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Piteå recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDDLLDLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, FBK Karlstad recorded 2 wins, there were 0 draws, and Piteå recorded 1 wins. The average total was 5.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 100% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 50%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FBK Karlstad or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.97%, 22.85% and 18.17%. The model momentum difference is 40.80 points in favour of FBK Karlstad. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.13 with Betfair. The stored estimated EV is -7.54%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FBK Karlstad at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 11 of 18 completed matches (61.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Piteå away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 11 of 18 completed matches (61.1% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FBK Karlstad and Piteå ended 4-3. The game produced 7 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 5.33 goals, while this match produced 7. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.