Match context

The upcoming match between Nublense and Union La Calera is scheduled for 16.08.2026 16:30 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nublense are in position 5 with 25 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWDL. Union La Calera are in position 16 with 13 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDDL.

Recent results

Nublense recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLWDWWWL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Union La Calera recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLDWLDWWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nublense recorded 1 wins, there were 5 draws, and Union La Calera recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.80; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Nublense or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.10%, 27.33% and 19.56%. The model momentum difference is 33.54 points in favour of Nublense. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.89%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Nublense at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.14 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 57.1%, 57.1%, 28.6% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 12 of 12 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Union La Calera away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 15 of 15 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Nublense and Union La Calera ended 2-1. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 11 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.1 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.8 total corners. The match recorded 11 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nublense at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.14 yellow cards, 0.29 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, Nublense received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.43 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 57.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 28.6%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Union La Calera away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, Union La Calera received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.43 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 14.3%.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.