Match context

The upcoming match between D. La Serena and Cobresal is scheduled for 23.08.2026 16:00 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
D. La Serena are in position 12 with 23 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 25 scored and 30 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLDD. Cobresal are in position 15 with 17 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDL.

Recent results

D. La Serena recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLDLLWWDL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Cobresal recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDLDLLDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, D. La Serena recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Cobresal recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.50; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as D. La Serena or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 56.48%, 23.90% and 19.62%. The model momentum difference is 36.86 points in favour of D. La Serena. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.18 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -5.15%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair D. La Serena +0.25 / Cobresal -0.25 supports D. La Serena by an average 1.91 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 22 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for D. La Serena at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 55.6%, 33.3% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 18 of 18 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Cobresal away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 33.3%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 15 completed matches (93.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between D. La Serena and Cobresal ended 3-3. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 10 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.5 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.5 total corners. The match recorded 10 corners in total. The result remained within one corner of the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for D. La Serena at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.67 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3 total cards per match. In this game, D. La Serena received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Cobresal away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, Cobresal received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported D. La Serena at +0.25. The stored market movement was 1.91 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-3, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 8 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.