Match context

The upcoming match between U. Catolica and Nublense is scheduled for 23.08.2026 00:00 in Primera División. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
U. Catolica are in position 3 with 30 points after 17 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 26 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWW. Nublense are in position 4 with 29 points after 16 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWDW.

Recent results

U. Catolica recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWLDLWWWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Nublense recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWWLWDWWW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, U. Catolica recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and Nublense recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as U. Catolica or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.91%, 27.43% and 18.65%. The model momentum difference is 35.26 points in favour of U. Catolica. The input data quality score is 100/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.17 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -4.83%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair U. Catolica -0.5 / Nublense +0.5 supports U. Catolica by an average 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for U. Catolica at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 83.3%, 33.3%, 33.3%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 12 of 12 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Nublense away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 2.80 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 80.0%, 80.0%, 40.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 13 completed matches (100.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between U. Catolica and Nublense ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for U. Catolica at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.83 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2 total cards per match. In this game, U. Catolica received 6 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 7 in total. That was 5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nublense away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 2.8 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.8 total cards per match. In this game, Nublense received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.2 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 80% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported U. Catolica at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.03 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.