Match context

The upcoming match between Colo Colo and Concepción is scheduled for 13.09.2026 20:30 in Primera División. The listed venue is Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Santiago de Chile. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Colo Colo are in position 1 with 53 points after 22 matches. The season record is 17 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses. The goals record is 47 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWDW. Concepción are in position 9 with 30 points after 22 matches. The season record is 9 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWDWW.

Recent results

Colo Colo recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWWDWWWWD. The averages are 2.40 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Concepción recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWDWWWWWWW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 0.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 3 head-to-head matches, Colo Colo recorded 3 wins, there were 0 draws, and Concepción recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 66.7% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 9.30; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 98%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Colo Colo to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.92%, 21.92% and 14.16%. The model momentum difference is 49.76 points in favour of Colo Colo. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.44 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Colo Colo +0.5 / Concepción -0.5 supports Concepción by an average 1.63 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 81/100, 80.84% bucket win rate across 621 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Colo Colo at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.70 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 1.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 10.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 22 completed matches (95.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Concepción away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.22 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 44.4%, 22.2% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 21 of 22 completed matches (95.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Colo Colo and Concepción ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 3 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 3 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 9.3 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 98%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Colo Colo at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.7 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 1.8 total cards per match. In this game, Colo Colo received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 10% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Concepción away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.22 yellow cards, 0.22 red cards and 2.44 total cards per match. In this game, Concepción received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.56 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 22.2%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Concepción at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.63 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 15 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.