Match context

The upcoming match between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC is scheduled for 06.09.2026 10:00 in K League 1. The listed venue is Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are in position 11 with 27 points after 21 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 11 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDDDD. Gwangju FC are in position 12 with 12 points after 21 matches. The season record is 1 wins, 7 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 11 scored and 47 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLD.

Recent results

Gimcheon Sangmu FC recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDDLDDWWWD. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gwangju FC recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLWLDLWLD. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC recorded 4 wins, there were 3 draws, and Gwangju FC recorded 3 wins. The average total was 1.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 10% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw (1X) with 83% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.80%, 24.63% and 16.57%. The model momentum difference is 42.23 points in favour of Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -6.56%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Gimcheon Sangmu FC -0.5 / Gwangju FC +0.5 supports Gimcheon Sangmu FC by an average 1.08 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 1.91 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 2.09 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 45.5%, 36.4%, 18.2% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 18.2%. Season card data is available for 24 of 26 completed matches (92.3% coverage). The discipline profile for Gwangju FC away from home is based on 12 matches. The team averages 2.42 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 50.0%, 25.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 25 of 26 completed matches (96.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC ended 2-2. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 1.91 yellow cards, 0.18 red cards and 2.09 total cards per match. In this game, Gimcheon Sangmu FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.09 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 36.4% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 18.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gwangju FC away from home was based on 12 matches, with averages of 2.42 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.42 total cards per match. In this game, Gwangju FC received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.42 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Gimcheon Sangmu FC at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.08 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 2-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 4 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.