Match context

The upcoming match between Seattle Reign FC and Chicago Red Stars W is scheduled for 15.08.2026 02:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Seattle Reign FC are in position 9 with 24 points after 16 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 20 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWLW. Chicago Red Stars W are in position 16 with 13 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL.

Recent results

Seattle Reign FC recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLWLLWLL. The averages are 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Chicago Red Stars W recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLLWLWLL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Seattle Reign FC recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Chicago Red Stars W recorded 4 wins. The average total was 4 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Seattle Reign FC to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 62.69%, 18.18% and 19.14%. The model momentum difference is 43.55 points in favour of Seattle Reign FC. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.11%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Seattle Reign FC -0.75 / Chicago Red Stars W +0.75 supports Chicago Red Stars W by an average 1.18 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 2 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Seattle Reign FC at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 0.57 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.57 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 57.1%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 15 completed matches (86.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.29 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 85.7%, 28.6%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 14 of 17 completed matches (82.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Seattle Reign FC and Chicago Red Stars W ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Seattle Reign FC at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 0.57 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.57 total cards per match. In this game, Seattle Reign FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 0.57 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.29 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.29 total cards per match. In this game, Chicago Red Stars W received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Seattle Reign FC at -0.75. The stored market movement was 1.18 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a half win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 2 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.