Match context

The upcoming match between Utah Royals W and Bay FC is scheduled for 15.08.2026 02:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Utah Royals W are in position 3 with 33 points after 18 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 31 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLWW. Bay FC are in position 14 with 19 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLW.

Recent results

Utah Royals W recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLWWLLDWW. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bay FC recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLWWDLLL. The averages are 1 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Utah Royals W recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Bay FC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 1.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Utah Royals W or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 58.04%, 22.78% and 19.18%. The model momentum difference is 38.85 points in favour of Utah Royals W. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.11 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.29%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Utah Royals W -0.25 / Bay FC +0.25 supports Utah Royals W by an average 4.17 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 20 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 77/100, 77.18% bucket win rate across 390 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Utah Royals W at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 0.86 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.86 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 42.9%, 28.6%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 17 completed matches (88.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Bay FC away from home is based on 5 matches. The team averages 1.20 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 20.0%, 20.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 12 of 16 completed matches (75.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Utah Royals W and Bay FC ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.6 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Utah Royals W at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 0.86 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.86 total cards per match. In this game, Utah Royals W received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 0.86 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bay FC away from home was based on 5 matches, with averages of 1.2 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.2 total cards per match. In this game, Bay FC received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Utah Royals W at -0.25. The stored market movement was 4.17 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.