Match context

The upcoming match between Houston Dash W and Chicago Red Stars W is scheduled for 20.08.2026 00:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Houston Dash W are in position 13 with 20 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses. The goals record is 19 scored and 25 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWDD. Chicago Red Stars W are in position 16 with 13 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLL.

Recent results

Houston Dash W recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWDDLLWD. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. Chicago Red Stars W recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLLLWLWL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 20% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Houston Dash W recorded 5 wins, there were 0 draws, and Chicago Red Stars W recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Houston Dash W to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.67%, 21.38% and 17.96%. The model momentum difference is 42.71 points in favour of Houston Dash W. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.21%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Houston Dash W 0 / Chicago Red Stars W 0 supports Houston Dash W by an average 2.76 percentage points across 3 bookmakers (Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 13 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.22, score 75/100, 75.36% bucket win rate across 422 observations). At least one goal in the match (quota 13, score 78/100, 77.58% group success rate across 2966 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Houston Dash W at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.80 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.80 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 90.0%, 60.0%, 20.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.13 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 75.0%, 25.0%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 18 completed matches (94.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Houston Dash W and Chicago Red Stars W ended 5-0. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Houston Dash W at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.8 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.8 total cards per match. In this game, Houston Dash W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.8 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.13 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.13 total cards per match. In this game, Chicago Red Stars W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Chicago Red Stars W at 0. The stored market movement was 2.76 percentage points across 3 bookmakers. At the final score of 5-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.22. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 13. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.