Match context

The upcoming match between San Diego Wave W and Racing Louisville W is scheduled for 29.08.2026 02:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Diego Wave W are in position 5 with 36 points after 18 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 19 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLWL. Racing Louisville W are in position 13 with 23 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 21 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWW.

Recent results

San Diego Wave W recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWLDLWWL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Racing Louisville W recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWWWLWDLL. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 2 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Diego Wave W recorded 3 wins, there were 3 draws, and Racing Louisville W recorded 2 wins. The average total was 1.63 goals per match. Both teams scored in 25% of those matches, while 25% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Both teams to score — 100%; Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 2.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Diego Wave W or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.70%, 22.39% and 17.91%. The model momentum difference is 41.79 points in favour of San Diego Wave W. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -8.06%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Diego Wave W +0.25 / Racing Louisville W -0.25 supports Racing Louisville W by an average 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 78.78% bucket win rate across 490 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Diego Wave W at home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 0.82 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.82 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 63.6%, 18.2%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 19 completed matches (100.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Racing Louisville W away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 1.75 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 62.5%, 12.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 19 completed matches (89.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Diego Wave W and Racing Louisville W ended 3-2. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 1.63 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 75%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Diego Wave W at home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 0.82 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.82 total cards per match. In this game, San Diego Wave W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.18 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Racing Louisville W away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 1.75 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.75 total cards per match. In this game, Racing Louisville W received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 1.25 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 12.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Racing Louisville W at -0.25. The stored market movement was 2.12 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.