Match context

The upcoming match between Washington Spirit W and Bay FC is scheduled for 30.08.2026 16:30 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Washington Spirit W are in position 2 with 37 points after 18 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The goals record is 26 scored and 13 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDLLW. Bay FC are in position 14 with 22 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 24 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDLL.

Recent results

Washington Spirit W recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDLLWWWLWW. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals. Bay FC recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDLLLWWDL. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 6 head-to-head matches, Washington Spirit W recorded 6 wins, there were 0 draws, and Bay FC recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 70%; Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 1.5 goals — 40%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 7.20; over 7.5 corners — 96%; over 8.5 corners — 85%; over 9.5 corners — 76%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Washington Spirit W or draw (1X) with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 59.33%, 22.99% and 17.68%. The model momentum difference is 41.64 points in favour of Washington Spirit W. The input data quality score is 88/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.15 with Betano. The stored estimated EV is -5.34%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Washington Spirit W -1.5 / Bay FC +1.5 supports Bay FC by an average 1.33 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.20, score 79/100, 79.49% bucket win rate across 551 observations). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Washington Spirit W at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 0.56 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.56 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 55.6%, 0.0%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 20 completed matches (95.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Bay FC away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 1.43 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 28.6%, 14.3%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 18 completed matches (83.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Washington Spirit W and Bay FC ended 1-0. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 12 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 6 head-to-head meetings averaged 3 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 6 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 7.2 total corners. The match recorded 12 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 96%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 85%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 76%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Washington Spirit W at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 0.56 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.56 total cards per match. In this game, Washington Spirit W received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.44 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Bay FC away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 1.43 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.43 total cards per match. In this game, Bay FC received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.43 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 14.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Bay FC at +1.5. The stored market movement was 1.33 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.2. The actual market outcome was Under 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.