Match context

The upcoming match between Chicago Red Stars W and North Carolina Courage W is scheduled for 06.09.2026 20:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Chicago Red Stars W are in position 16 with 16 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 9 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLD. North Carolina Courage W are in position 6 with 36 points after 17 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWLW.

Recent results

Chicago Red Stars W recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLDLLLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. North Carolina Courage W recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWWWLLL. The averages are 2 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Chicago Red Stars W recorded 1 wins, there were 3 draws, and North Carolina Courage W recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 80%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 8.10; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 95%; over 9.5 corners — 85%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as North Carolina Courage W to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 18.99%, 20.05% and 60.96%. The model momentum difference is 41.96 points in favour of North Carolina Courage W. The input data quality score is 85/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.78%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 19, score 82/100, 81.59% group success rate across 1526 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 0.78 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 0.78 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 44.4%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 21 completed matches (90.5% coverage). The discipline profile for North Carolina Courage W away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 75.0%, 37.5%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 12.5%. Season card data is available for 16 of 18 completed matches (88.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Chicago Red Stars W and North Carolina Courage W ended 0-6. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The verified final statistics recorded 6 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 8.1 total corners. The match recorded 6 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Under 7.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 95%. The actual outcome was Under 8.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 85%. The actual outcome was Under 9.5 corners. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 0.78 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 0.78 total cards per match. In this game, Chicago Red Stars W received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 1.22 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for North Carolina Courage W away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.13 red cards and 2.13 total cards per match. In this game, North Carolina Courage W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.13 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 12.5%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 19. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 6 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.