Match context

The upcoming match between Portland Thorns W and Chicago Red Stars W is scheduled for 13.09.2026 23:00 in NWSL Women. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Portland Thorns W are in position 7 with 38 points after 23 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is LDWWW. Chicago Red Stars W are in position 16 with 16 points after 23 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 1 draws and 17 losses. The goals record is 13 scored and 53 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWLL.

Recent results

Portland Thorns W recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LDWWWLDLLW. The averages are 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Chicago Red Stars W recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWLLDLLLL. The averages are 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Portland Thorns W recorded 6 wins, there were 2 draws, and Chicago Red Stars W recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.60 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 3.5 goals — 50%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.20; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Portland Thorns W to win with 71% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 71.31%, 15.75% and 12.94%. The model momentum difference is 58.37 points in favour of Portland Thorns W. The input data quality score is 93/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.27 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.43%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.65). At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 79/100, 79.17% group success rate across 744 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Portland Thorns W at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 1.30 yellow cards, 0.30 red cards and 1.60 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 80.0%, 40.0%, 20.0%, 10.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 22 of 23 completed matches (95.7% coverage). The discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 1.09 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.09 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 81.8%, 18.2%, 9.1%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 21 of 23 completed matches (91.3% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Portland Thorns W and Chicago Red Stars W ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The verified final statistics recorded 14 corners in total. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.6 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. The stored pre-match average was 10.2 total corners. The match recorded 14 corners in total. The result differed by more than one corner from the stored average. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 7.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 7.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 8.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 8.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 9.5 corners at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 9.5 corners. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Portland Thorns W at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 1.3 yellow cards, 0.3 red cards and 1.6 total cards per match. In this game, Portland Thorns W received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 1.6 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 20% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Chicago Red Stars W away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 1.09 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.09 total cards per match. In this game, Chicago Red Stars W received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 0.09 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 9.1% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.65. The actual market outcome was BTTS Yes. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 14 verifiable pre-match indicators, 11 aligned with the final result and 3 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.