Match context

The upcoming match between Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri is scheduled for 23.08.2026 17:00 in Úrvalsdeild. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Stjarnan are in position 8 with 21 points after 17 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 43 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLLD. Thor Akureyri are in position 12 with 15 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 18 scored and 42 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWDW.

Recent results

Stjarnan recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLLWLDWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Thor Akureyri recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLWDWLDLDL. The averages are 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stjarnan recorded 2 wins, there were 1 draws, and Thor Akureyri recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 70%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 2.5 goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Stjarnan to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 63.05%, 19.90% and 17.05%. The model momentum difference is 46.00 points in favour of Stjarnan. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

2 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even - First Half — Even (odds 1.82). At least one goal in the match (quota 34, score 79/100, 79.50% group success rate across 278 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Stjarnan at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 85.7%, 42.9%, 14.3% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage). The discipline profile for Thor Akureyri away from home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.71 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9%, 42.9% and 14.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 19 completed matches (84.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Stjarnan and Thor Akureyri ended 4-2. The game produced 6 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.2 goals, while this match produced 6. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Stjarnan at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.29 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, Stjarnan received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.43 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 14.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Thor Akureyri away from home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2.71 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.71 total cards per match. In this game, Thor Akureyri received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.71 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 14.3%, and a red card in 0%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Even HT goals at odds of 1.82. The actual market outcome was Odd HT goals. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 34. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 6 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.