Match context

The upcoming match between Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra is scheduled for 14.09.2026 17:00 in Erovnuli Liga. The listed venue is Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, Tbilisi. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Dinamo Tbilisi are in position 3 with 39 points after 24 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 36 scored and 27 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLW. Gagra are in position 8 with 28 points after 25 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 10 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 24 scored and 32 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLD.

Recent results

Dinamo Tbilisi recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDWLWLLWDW. The averages are 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Gagra recorded 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLWDLDDWWD. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Dinamo Tbilisi recorded 3 wins, there were 2 draws, and Gagra recorded 5 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 60%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (1X) with 81% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 55.83%, 25.12% and 19.04%. The model momentum difference is 36.79 points in favour of Dinamo Tbilisi. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.10 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Dinamo Tbilisi 0 / Gagra 0 supports Gagra by an average 2.90 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 2). Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Goals Over/Under — Over 1.5 (odds 1.27, score 83/100, 83.33% bucket win rate across 96 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Dinamo Tbilisi at home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 40.0%, 20.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 24 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Gagra away from home is based on 11 matches. The team averages 2.09 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.18 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 72.7%, 27.3%, 9.1% and 9.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 9.1%. Season card data is available for 22 of 25 completed matches (88.0% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Dinamo Tbilisi and Gagra ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 4. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Under 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Dinamo Tbilisi at home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.3 total cards per match. In this game, Dinamo Tbilisi received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Gagra away from home was based on 11 matches, with averages of 2.09 yellow cards, 0.09 red cards and 2.18 total cards per match. In this game, Gagra received 2 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.82 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 27.3% of matches, 5+ in 9.1%, and a red card in 9.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Gagra at 0. The stored market movement was 2.9 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Over 2.5. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Over 1.5 FT at odds of 1.27. The actual market outcome was Over 1.5 FT. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 13 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 8 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.