Match context

The upcoming match between San Marcos de Arica and Union San Felipe is scheduled for 13.08.2026 00:30 in Primera B. The listed venue is Estadio Carlos Dittborn, Arica. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Marcos de Arica are in position 3 with 30 points after 17 matches. The season record is 7 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 12 conceded. The stored form sequence is DDWLL. Union San Felipe are in position 14 with 17 points after 17 matches. The season record is 4 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 14 scored and 34 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLDW.

Recent results

San Marcos de Arica recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLDWLLLLLW. The averages are 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 20% finished with over 2.5 goals. Union San Felipe recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLLDLWDWL. The averages are 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 30% of those matches, while 30% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica recorded 5 wins, there were 1 draws, and Union San Felipe recorded 4 wins. The average total was 2.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 2.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Marcos de Arica to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.41%, 23.75% and 14.84%. The model momentum difference is 46.57 points in favour of San Marcos de Arica. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.95%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Marcos de Arica +0.25 / Union San Felipe -0.25 supports San Marcos de Arica by an average 4.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Pinnacle, 1xBet) with up to 15 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

3 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2). Both Teams Score — Yes (odds 1.87). Goals Over/Under — Under 2.5 (odds 1.90).

What happened in the match

The match between San Marcos de Arica and Union San Felipe ended 0-1. The game produced 1 goal in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.2 goals, while this match produced 1. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported San Marcos de Arica at +0.25. The stored market movement was 4.19 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 0-1, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Odd. The Premium signal was confirmed. The stored Premium market was BTTS Yes at odds of 1.87. The actual market outcome was BTTS No. The Premium signal was not confirmed. The stored Premium market was Under 2.5 at odds of 1.9. The actual market outcome was Under 2.5. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 12 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.