Match context

The upcoming match between San Marcos de Arica and Curico Unido is scheduled for 13.09.2026 18:00 in Primera B. The listed venue is Estadio Carlos Dittborn, Arica. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
San Marcos de Arica are in position 9 with 33 points after 24 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 28 scored and 23 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWLLL. Curico Unido are in position 12 with 27 points after 24 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 35 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDWL.

Recent results

San Marcos de Arica recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWLLLLDLDW. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 40% finished with over 2.5 goals. Curico Unido recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLDWLLDWDL. The averages are 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Marcos de Arica recorded 0 wins, there were 1 draws, and Curico Unido recorded 4 wins. The average total was 4.20 goals per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Under 3.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 60%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%; Under 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as San Marcos de Arica or draw (1X) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 53.27%, 26.96% and 19.77%. The model momentum difference is 33.50 points in favour of San Marcos de Arica. The input data quality score is 86/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.14%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair San Marcos de Arica -1.5 / Curico Unido +1.5 supports San Marcos de Arica by an average 3.58 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for San Marcos de Arica at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 66.7%, 33.3%, 22.2% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 18 of 24 completed matches (75.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Curico Unido away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 3.63 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 4.00 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 87.5%, 75.0%, 75.0% and 37.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 25.0%. Season card data is available for 16 of 24 completed matches (66.7% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between San Marcos de Arica and Curico Unido ended 3-0. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 5 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.2 goals, while this match produced 3. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for San Marcos de Arica at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, San Marcos de Arica received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Curico Unido away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 3.63 yellow cards, 0.38 red cards and 4 total cards per match. In this game, Curico Unido received 0 yellow cards and 1 red cards, 1 in total. That was 3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 75% of matches, 5+ in 37.5%, and a red card in 25%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported San Marcos de Arica at -1.5. The stored market movement was 3.58 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 3-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 9 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.