Match context

The upcoming match between St. Louis City II and North Texas is scheduled for 29.08.2026 00:00 in MLS Next Pro. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
St. Louis City II are in position 6 with 39 points after 21 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 0 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 37 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is LWWWL. North Texas are in position 9 with 33 points after 19 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 0 draws and 11 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 33 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWLWL.

Recent results

St. Louis City II recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWDWDLLLLL. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. North Texas recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DDLWLDWLWD. The averages are 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, St. Louis City II recorded 5 wins, there were 3 draws, and North Texas recorded 2 wins. The average total was 2.70 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 80%; Under 3.5 goals — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Both teams to score — 40%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 40%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as St. Louis City II to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 60.87%, 21.97% and 17.16%. The model momentum difference is 43.71 points in favour of St. Louis City II. The input data quality score is 95/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.48 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. Odd/Even — Odd (odds 2).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for St. Louis City II at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 22.2%, 22.2% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 17 of 23 completed matches (73.9% coverage). The discipline profile for North Texas away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 44.4%, 11.1% and 11.1% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 15 of 21 completed matches (71.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between St. Louis City II and North Texas ended 1-1. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.7 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 0.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for St. Louis City II at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, St. Louis City II received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for North Texas away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 2.67 total cards per match. In this game, North Texas received 4 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 4 in total. That was 1.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 44.4% of matches, 5+ in 11.1%, and a red card in 33.3%.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was Odd at odds of 2. The actual market outcome was Even. The Premium signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 7 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.