Match context

The upcoming match between Kalju Nomme and Vaprus is scheduled for 16.08.2026 14:00 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kalju Nomme are in position 2 with 41 points after 21 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWD. Vaprus are in position 6 with 27 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLWLW.

Recent results

Kalju Nomme recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWLDDWWD. The averages are 3 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vaprus recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDWLWLWLDW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.20 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kalju Nomme recorded 7 wins, there were 1 draws, and Vaprus recorded 2 wins. The average total was 3.40 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kalju Nomme to win with 64% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 64.33%, 20.01% and 15.66%. The model momentum difference is 48.66 points in favour of Kalju Nomme. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.40 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -9.94%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kalju Nomme -0.5 / Vaprus +0.5 supports Kalju Nomme by an average 1.81 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 5 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 3.17 yellow cards, 0.50 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 33.3% and 33.3% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 33.3%. Season card data is available for 12 of 22 completed matches (54.5% coverage). The discipline profile for Vaprus away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.83 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 16.7% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 13 of 21 completed matches (61.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kalju Nomme and Vaprus ended 3-1. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.4 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 3.17 yellow cards, 0.5 red cards and 3.67 total cards per match. In this game, Kalju Nomme received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.67 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 33.3%, and a red card in 33.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vaprus away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.83 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.83 total cards per match. In this game, Vaprus received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.83 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 16.7%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Kalju Nomme at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.81 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 3-1, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 10 aligned with the final result and 0 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.