Match context

The upcoming match between Flora Tallinn and Kuressaare is scheduled for 16.08.2026 16:00 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Flora Tallinn are in position 3 with 39 points after 20 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLWWL. Kuressaare are in position 9 with 21 points after 22 matches. The season record is 6 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 22 scored and 36 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLDLL.

Recent results

Flora Tallinn recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LWWLWLDLWW. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals. Kuressaare recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLWDLLLDW. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 60% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Flora Tallinn recorded 9 wins, there were 1 draws, and Kuressaare recorded 0 wins. The average total was 3.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%; Over 2.5 goals — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Flora Tallinn to win with 67% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 66.99%, 18.76% and 14.26%. The model momentum difference is 52.73 points in favour of Flora Tallinn. The input data quality score is 92/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.33 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.91%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Flora Tallinn -0.5 / Kuressaare +0.5 supports Flora Tallinn by an average 1.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, Unibet) with up to 4 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Flora Tallinn at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 2.33 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 83.3%, 50.0%, 16.7% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 13 of 20 completed matches (65.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Kuressaare away from home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 33.3%, 0.0%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 16.7%. Season card data is available for 12 of 22 completed matches (54.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Flora Tallinn and Kuressaare ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 4 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.3 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flora Tallinn at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 2.33 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Flora Tallinn received 5 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 5 in total. That was 2.5 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 50% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kuressaare away from home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.17 yellow cards, 0.17 red cards and 1.33 total cards per match. In this game, Kuressaare received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.67 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 0% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 16.7%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Flora Tallinn at -0.5. The stored market movement was 1.18 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 8 verifiable pre-match indicators, 3 aligned with the final result and 5 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.