Match context

The upcoming match between Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn is scheduled for 16.08.2026 16:00 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Laagri are in position 8 with 25 points after 22 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 13 losses. The goals record is 32 scored and 38 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLWWL. FC Levadia Tallinn are in position 1 with 50 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 50 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDWLD.

Recent results

Laagri recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLLWWWLLLL. The averages are 2.50 goals scored and 1.60 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WDLWWWWLDW. The averages are 2.60 goals scored and 1 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 9 head-to-head matches, Laagri recorded 1 wins, there were 2 draws, and FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.33 goals per match. Both teams scored in 55.6% of those matches, while 66.7% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 3.5 goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Levadia Tallinn to win with 72% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 11.21%, 17.08% and 71.72%. The model momentum difference is 60.51 points in favour of FC Levadia Tallinn. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.25 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.35%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Laagri +0.5 / FC Levadia Tallinn -0.5 supports FC Levadia Tallinn by an average 2.11 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Unibet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 80/100, 80.03% group success rate across 601 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Laagri at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 3.14 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 71.4%, 28.6% and 28.6% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 14.3%. Season card data is available for 13 of 22 completed matches (59.1% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn away from home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 77.8%, 22.2%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 13 of 21 completed matches (61.9% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Laagri and FC Levadia Tallinn ended 1-2. The game produced 3 goals in total. The first half contained 2 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 9 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.33 goals, while this match produced 3. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 55.6%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile. Across the previous 9 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 66.7%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Laagri at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 3.14 yellow cards, 0.14 red cards and 3.29 total cards per match. In this game, Laagri received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 2.29 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 71.4% of matches, 5+ in 28.6%, and a red card in 14.3%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn away from home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.11 total cards per match. In this game, FC Levadia Tallinn received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.11 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 22.2% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FC Levadia Tallinn at -0.5. The stored market movement was 2.11 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 1-2, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.