Match context

The upcoming match between Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn is scheduled for 06.09.2026 11:30 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is Paide linnastaadion, Paide. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Paide are in position 4 with 42 points after 21 matches. The season record is 10 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses. The goals record is 33 scored and 28 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWDWL. FC Levadia Tallinn are in position 1 with 59 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 50 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWD.

Recent results

Paide recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWDLLWDWL. The averages are 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals. FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWDLWWW. The averages are 3.20 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Paide recorded 3 wins, there were 1 draws, and FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 6 wins. The average total was 3.50 goals per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 100%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. The stored corner indicators are: average total corners — 10.67; over 7.5 corners — 100%; over 8.5 corners — 100%; over 9.5 corners — 100%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Levadia Tallinn to win with 63% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 17.05%, 19.90% and 63.05%. The model momentum difference is 46.00 points in favour of FC Levadia Tallinn. The input data quality score is 96/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.42 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.47%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Paide -0.5 / FC Levadia Tallinn +0.5 supports Paide by an average 3.76 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (Bet365) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Paide at home is based on 7 matches. The team averages 2.00 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 71.4%, 42.9%, 28.6% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 28.6%. Season card data is available for 16 of 24 completed matches (66.7% coverage). The discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.10 red cards and 2.20 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 80.0%, 30.0%, 10.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 10.0%. Season card data is available for 15 of 24 completed matches (62.5% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Paide and FC Levadia Tallinn ended 0-2. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 0 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 3.5 goals, while this match produced 2. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Under 2.5. The final result did not align with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 100%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Under 2.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Under 0.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Paide at home was based on 7 matches, with averages of 2 yellow cards, 0.43 red cards and 2.43 total cards per match. In this game, Paide received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.57 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 42.9% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 28.6%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.1 red cards and 2.2 total cards per match. In this game, FC Levadia Tallinn received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.2 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 30% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 10%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Paide at -0.5. The stored market movement was 3.76 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 0-2, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 10 verifiable pre-match indicators, 1 aligned with the final result and 9 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.