Match context

The upcoming match between Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva is scheduled for 12.09.2026 11:30 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Kalju Nomme are in position 3 with 44 points after 21 matches. The season record is 11 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses. The goals record is 38 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is LLLLW. Trans Narva are in position 10 with 18 points after 21 matches. The season record is 5 wins, 1 draws and 15 losses. The goals record is 17 scored and 48 conceded. The stored form sequence is DLLLD.

Recent results

Kalju Nomme recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is LLLLLWWWWW. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Trans Narva recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DLLWLDWLWD. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, Kalju Nomme recorded 5 wins, there were 2 draws, and Trans Narva recorded 3 wins. The average total was 2.30 goals per match. Both teams scored in 40% of those matches, while 50% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%; Under 3.5 goals — 60%; Both teams to score — 50%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as Kalju Nomme to win with 61% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 61.36%, 21.70% and 16.95%. The model momentum difference is 44.41 points in favour of Kalju Nomme. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.45 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -11.03%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Kalju Nomme -0.25 / Trans Narva +0.25 supports Trans Narva by an average 2.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 7 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 3.00 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 100.0%, 55.6%, 22.2% and 22.2% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 22.2%. Season card data is available for 17 of 27 completed matches (63.0% coverage). The discipline profile for Trans Narva away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.10 yellow cards, 0.20 red cards and 2.30 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 60.0%, 40.0%, 30.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 20.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 27 completed matches (70.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Kalju Nomme and Trans Narva ended 2-0. The game produced 2 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.3 goals, while this match produced 2. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 60%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Kalju Nomme at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 3 yellow cards, 0.33 red cards and 3.33 total cards per match. In this game, Kalju Nomme received 3 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 3 in total. That was 0.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 55.6% of matches, 5+ in 22.2%, and a red card in 22.2%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Trans Narva away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.1 yellow cards, 0.2 red cards and 2.3 total cards per match. In this game, Trans Narva received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.3 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 20%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Trans Narva at +0.25. The stored market movement was 2.05 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-0, the line settled as a full loss. The Asian-handicap signal was not confirmed.

Summary

Of 7 verifiable pre-match indicators, 5 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.