Match context

The upcoming match between FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus is scheduled for 12.09.2026 11:30 in Meistriliiga. The listed venue is A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
FC Levadia Tallinn are in position 1 with 62 points after 20 matches. The season record is 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses. The goals record is 50 scored and 17 conceded. The stored form sequence is WWWWW. Vaprus are in position 7 with 31 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses. The goals record is 29 scored and 39 conceded. The stored form sequence is WDLLD.

Recent results

FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWWWWWWDLW. The averages are 2.80 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 60% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals. Vaprus recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WWLDLLWDWL. The averages are 2.10 goals scored and 1.70 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 80% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 10 head-to-head matches, FC Levadia Tallinn recorded 7 wins, there were 2 draws, and Vaprus recorded 1 wins. The average total was 4.10 goals per match. Both teams scored in 100% of those matches, while 90% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 0.5 first-half goals — 90%; Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Over 2.5 goals — 90%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 80%; Both teams to score — 70%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as FC Levadia Tallinn to win with 82% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 82.33%, 11.53% and 6.15%. The model momentum difference is 76.18 points in favour of FC Levadia Tallinn. The input data quality score is 94/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -7.79%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair FC Levadia Tallinn 0 / Vaprus 0 supports FC Levadia Tallinn by an average 1.51 percentage points across 1 bookmakers (1xBet) with up to 3 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 29, score 83/100, 82.65% group success rate across 490 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn at home is based on 6 matches. The team averages 1.67 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 50.0%, 16.7%, 0.0% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 17 of 26 completed matches (65.4% coverage). The discipline profile for Vaprus away from home is based on 8 matches. The team averages 2.50 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.50 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 87.5%, 37.5%, 12.5% and 12.5% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 18 of 26 completed matches (69.2% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between FC Levadia Tallinn and Vaprus ended 4-0. The game produced 4 goals in total. The first half contained 3 goals. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The historical profile from 10 head-to-head meetings averaged 4.1 goals, while this match produced 4. The result remained within one goal of the historical average. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was BTTS at 100%. The actual outcome for this indicator was No BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 10 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 70%. The actual outcome was No BTTS. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 3.5 at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for FC Levadia Tallinn at home was based on 6 matches, with averages of 1.67 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 1.67 total cards per match. In this game, FC Levadia Tallinn received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.33 cards above the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 16.7% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 0%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Vaprus away from home was based on 8 matches, with averages of 2.5 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.5 total cards per match. In this game, Vaprus received 2 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 2 in total. That was 0.5 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 37.5% of matches, 5+ in 12.5%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported FC Levadia Tallinn at 0. The stored market movement was 1.51 percentage points across 1 bookmaker. At the final score of 4-0, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 29. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 9 aligned with the final result and 2 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.