Match context

The upcoming match between Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn is scheduled for 12.09.2026 14:00 in Meistriliiga. The analysis uses only stored statistics, form, head-to-head records, trend percentages and active Premium market signals. It does not guarantee a particular result.

Standings and season form
Nõmme United are in position 8 with 28 points after 21 matches. The season record is 8 wins, 1 draws and 12 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 48 conceded. The stored form sequence is WLLLL. Flora Tallinn are in position 2 with 49 points after 20 matches. The season record is 13 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses. The goals record is 40 scored and 21 conceded. The stored form sequence is DWWLL.

Recent results

Nõmme United recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is WLWLLWLLLW. The averages are 2.20 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 50% of those matches, while 70% finished with over 2.5 goals. Flora Tallinn recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses across the last 10 completed matches. The newest-to-oldest result sequence is DWWLLWLLWW. The averages are 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 goals conceded per match. Both teams scored in 70% of those matches, while 80% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-head

Across the last 8 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United recorded 1 wins, there were 1 draws, and Flora Tallinn recorded 6 wins. The average total was 2.88 goals per match. Both teams scored in 37.5% of those matches, while 62.5% finished with over 2.5 goals.

Trend indicators

The highest stored values are: Over 1.5 goals — 90%; Both teams to score — 80%; Over 2.5 goals — 80%; Over 0.5 first-half goals — 70%; Over 1.5 first-half goals — 60%. They are statistical indicators and are not automatically converted into a prediction.

PMV3 model and market price

The PMV3 model classifies the leading outcome as draw or Flora Tallinn (X2) with 80% confidence. The stored fair probabilities for home, draw and away are 19.84%, 20.62% and 59.53%. The model momentum difference is 39.69 points in favour of Flora Tallinn. The input data quality score is 91/100. The stored price for the selected market is 1.12 with Bet365. The stored estimated EV is -10.23%. Despite the model probability, the price is marked NO_VALUE. The signal is therefore not treated automatically as a value bet.

Asian handicap market movement

The normalized movement for the Asian pair Nõmme United -0.75 / Flora Tallinn +0.75 supports Flora Tallinn by an average 6.15 percentage points across 2 bookmakers (Bet365, 1xBet) with up to 6 stored observations. This is a market signal, not a result guarantee.

Premium market signals

1 active football Premium signals are stored for this fixture. At least one goal in the match (quota 23, score 79/100, 79.36% group success rate across 717 observations).

Discipline profile

The discipline profile for Nõmme United at home is based on 9 matches. The team averages 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 88.9%, 33.3%, 11.1% and 0.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 11.1%. Season card data is available for 20 of 27 completed matches (74.1% coverage). The discipline profile for Flora Tallinn away from home is based on 10 matches. The team averages 2.40 yellow cards, 0.00 red cards and 2.40 total cards per match. At least 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 cards were recorded in 100.0%, 70.0%, 40.0%, 20.0% and 10.0% of those matches respectively, while a red card occurred in 0.0%. Season card data is available for 19 of 27 completed matches (70.4% coverage).

What happened in the match

The match between Nõmme United and Flora Tallinn ended 2-3. The game produced 5 goals in total. The first half contained 1 goal. The following review compares the final result only with historical data, the discipline profile, trend values and Premium signals locked before kickoff.

Comparison with the head-to-head history

The previous 8 head-to-head meetings averaged 2.88 goals, while this match produced 5. The final scoring profile differed by more than one goal from that average. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was No BTTS at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was BTTS. The final result did not align with that historical profile. Across the previous 8 head-to-head meetings, the leading historical direction was Over 2.5 at 62.5%. The actual outcome for this indicator was Over 2.5. The final result aligned with that historical profile.

Which pre-match trends were confirmed and which were not

Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated BTTS at 80%. The actual outcome was BTTS. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 at 90%. The actual outcome was Over 1.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 2.5 at 80%. The actual outcome was Over 2.5. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Under 3.5 at 60%. The actual outcome was Over 3.5. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 0.5 HT at 70%. The actual outcome was Over 0.5 HT. The stored trend was confirmed by the result. Before kickoff, the stored trend indicated Over 1.5 HT at 60%. The actual outcome was Under 1.5 HT. The stored trend was not confirmed by the result.

Discipline profile review

Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Nõmme United at home was based on 9 matches, with averages of 2.22 yellow cards, 0.11 red cards and 2.33 total cards per match. In this game, Nõmme United received 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 0 in total. That was 2.33 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 33.3% of matches, 5+ in 0%, and a red card in 11.1%. Before kickoff, the discipline profile for Flora Tallinn away from home was based on 10 matches, with averages of 2.4 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2.4 total cards per match. In this game, Flora Tallinn received 1 yellow cards and 0 red cards, 1 in total. That was 1.4 cards below the stored average. In the pre-match sample, 3+ cards occurred in 40% of matches, 5+ in 10%, and a red card in 0%.

Asian handicap review

The Asian-handicap signal locked before kickoff supported Flora Tallinn at +0.75. The stored market movement was 6.15 percentage points across 2 bookmakers. At the final score of 2-3, the line settled as a full win. The Asian-handicap signal was confirmed.

Premium market review

The stored Premium market was At least one FT goal with quota 23. The actual market outcome was At least one FT goal. The Premium signal was confirmed.

Summary

Of 11 verifiable pre-match indicators, 7 aligned with the final result and 4 were not confirmed. This is a post-match verification of data stored before kickoff, not a revision of the analysis after the match ended.